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Another stunned visitor…

Rose-breasted Grosbeak - Pheucticus ludovicianus

A new use for my macro lens. Perhaps I should start a new bird photography genre…macro bird photography. The problem? You have to be within 12 inches to get a photo like this. Another problem? Unfortunately, it seems a couple times a week I’m likely to get an opportunity like this, thanks to birds running into my windows.

It’s become an all-too common occurrence.  We’re relaxing at home during the day, when we hear a thump from the front of the house.  Another bird has evidently tried to commit suicide by flying into one of our windows.  What could the problem be?  They say depression is “contagious”.  Perhaps there’s an epidemic of birdy depression in our neighborhood, and birds view our front windows as a perfect means to end it.  What’s the solution?  A birdy counselor?  Anti-depressants dissolved in the bird bath?

Ok, it’s not the birds that are depressed, it’s me whenever I hear that sickening thump.  The strange thing is the location of the window where it most often occurs.  While we’ll occasionally hear it from a different window, by far the most common place for it to occur are the windows in our living room that look out to the front yard, over the covered porch.  The blinds on those windows are usually closed, and given the porch roof that keeps the windows in constant shade, it just seems odd that it’s a location that birds mistake for an open path.

Whenever the thump occurs, I’ll go out front and check on the victim. :Most often, it’s nowhere to be seen, with (evidently) no serious damage being done, and the bird flying away immediately after the strike.  Less often, I’ll find a dazed bird laying on the front porch or in the adjacent yard.  This was the situation yesterday where I took the accompanying photo.  It was a female Rose-breasted Grosbeak that had struck the window, and she was sitting in a stupor on the porch when I came out.  I picked her up and put her in a protected shady spot in the corner of the porch.  She sat there, looking around, evidently with no broken bones or other such trauma, but obviously with the equivalent of a birdy concussion.  After about 15 minutes, she flew away on her own, and later that day, I did see a female RB Grosbeak at the feeders, which may have been her.

The worst is finding a dead bird. It doesn’t happen all that often, when you find a deceased bird right by the window itself.  However, I do wonder what kind of long-term damage is done in some of the strikes.  Even if there are no broken bones or other similar damage, the brain trauma can’t be good.  It makes me wonder how many window-strikers end up dying later on, away from the window itself.

It’s kind of sad to think of how often this must be repeated across the world, every day, given the repeated occurrences for us at this one window.  It doesn’t seem to matter for us what we do. Shades up, shades down but closed, shades down but slats open…all give the window a different look, but nothing seems to help.

In the meantime, perhaps I’ll make lemonade out of lemons, and start a new genre of bird photography…macro bird photography of the eyes of wild birds.  Not exactly practical in most of the real world, given that you can never get that close to a wild bird, but sadly, I’ve had far too many opportunities over the years by our living room window.

A nerdy scientist’s assessment of risk – Tornadoes vs. Earthquakes

Tornado Risk map - Dakotas

Tornado risk map from the National Weather Service for July 17th, 2015. Sioux Falls was squarely within the 2% zone, meaning there was a 2% chance of a tornado being seen somewhere within 25 miles of your location. Somehow…we all survived.

While at a conference for work in Portland last week, my colleague and I had a nice supper with two USGS colleagues who work in Menlo Park, California and Seattle, Washington, respectively.  We had relayed the news that the night before, there was storm damage in the area, with straight line winds and tornadoes both causing damage.  The West Coast colleagues…oh…let’s just call them “Ben” and “Tamara”…were flabbergasted that we’d want to live in an area so prone to devastating storms.

Tonight, the National Weather Service put out the map I’m showing here, noting that parts of South Dakota had either a 5% or 2% chance of a tornado hitting somewhere within 25 miles of your location. Let’s do the math!  What are the odds of a tornado hitting YOUR exact location on a night like this, when tornadoes were indeed spotted?

An area with a radius of 25 miles is over 54 billion square feet of territory. What are the odds of a tornado hitting your bit of territory, with a 2% chance of one being seen somewhere in this area? The average tornado path is 4 miles, or 21,120 feet. Average width is 500 feet. The average damage path is 10.5 million square feet. Even if you’re in the highest probability area, 5% chance of one being seen relatively near, the chances of one hitting YOUR chunk of territory…0.0010%. For the 2% chance of a tornado near you, the odds are 0.0004% it will strike your exact location.

Without Warning - Oregon Cascadia earthquake Comic

An actual comic-like booklet put out by the Oregon Office of Emergency Management. Yes, West Coasters…you’re in imminent danger of being swallowed whole by a massive earthquake. Tornadoes in the Plains? They’re nothing in comparison.

Just a guess…but we probably have chances similar to this only like 4-5 times a year. If you just use the same strike probability assumptions, you thus only have, likely at absolute most, a 0.0050% chance of a tornado hitting your location in a given year.

That’s an average of about one hit on your exact location every 20,000 years. Most tornadoes are weak F0 or F1, so even a hit might not be that bad.

Now, let’s reconsider the situation for my colleagues living in California and Seattle.  This week the New Yorker ran a story about the upcoming massive Cascadia subduction zone earthquake that could hit, The story said on average, something similar to the massive 1700 earthquake thought to have hit the area occurs about once every 250 years.

Put it all together, and Seattle is 80X as likely to get walloped with a 9.0 earthquake as Sioux Falls is to get a direct hit from a tornado, and even a direct tornado hit in Sioux Falls is likely to be far, far, less damaging than any earthquake.

You are welcome, West Coast storm-haters.  I hope I have reassured you that is once again safe to visit us in stormy Sioux Falls.  🙂

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